We’ve counted the paper ballots up here and the polloi have decided that we want another minority government under Stephen “Steve” Harper. Don’t worry, dear American readers, I’ll translate later.
No party has a mandate to govern, without the assistance of one or two of the others in a pseudo-coalition, usually bill by bill. The Conservatives under Harper have a slight increase in seats, while the Liberals got clobbered. The NDP picked up a few, as did the Bloc Quebecois. The Green Party was shut out and there are three Independents.
(American translation: ‘Republicans’ up a bit, ‘Democrats’ eaten for breakfast while the ‘Social Democratic’ and "Quebec Monomania’ party had some increases. Three independents got in but no Greens. The Canadian Prime Minister is also a sitting member of the House and has to win in a riding in order to lead. There are 308 seats in the House of Commons and you don’t get a mandate unless you get a majority of the seats. 155 was the magic number: The Conservatives got 143, close enough to sniff it, but not close enough to kiss it.)
Which means Canada gets more of the same governance we had before, in a House that resounds with playground taunts masquerading as debate, while the committee work grinds to a halt under a heavy mist of bully-boy micromanaging by Harper. Harper doesn’t care as he rules by fiat, e-mail and memo from the Privy Council Office and the Prime Minister’s Office.
Naturally, the Day After has our pundit class sniffing the entrails looking for something to talk about. Stephane Dion, the head of the Liberal party showed that making it up as you go, is not the way to win. At one time, under Trudeau, Chretien and less so, Martin, the Liberals were almost declared the Natural Governing Party with the best political machine going.
When the Liberals put Dion forward as the party candidate, it would seem that the wheels fell off the Big Red Tricycle. Yesterday, the Liberals proved they couldn’t organize a fart contest at a bean supper. They didn’t get out the vote and they couldn’t (or wouldn’t) make Dion into a leader that Canadians could tolerate for a few years.
Stephane Dion is photocopying his resume as he did not deliver the raw power of a majority that the Liberals machine needs to keep functioning. Dion knows that the Night of the Long Knives is coming. Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff are holding the door open for Dion to make a hasty, ungraceful exit.
Jack Layton of the New Democrats did well in the last week of the campaign, buying as much airtime as the party could stand. The NDP was up a bit, seven seats, but Jack is charisma-challenged enough to keep the party in third place. He’s a nice guy, but he’s no Ed Broadbent. Or David Lewis. Or Tommy Douglas. And never will be.
The Quebec Monomania Party (sorry the Bloc Quebecois) is the political equivalent of a man having three nipples: No real use, plus one extra as a conversation piece. Nobody, outside of Quebec cares what Gilles Duceppe has to say, except he has fifty seats that vote as a bloc(k) and can prop up the Conservatives, who hate the Bloc worse than Sin itself.
Which leaves us where? The Conservatives and the NDP agreeing to play nice with each other for four years, with the Liberals and the Bloc doing incontinent miniature poodle impersonations, pissing all over everything?
That kind of Parliament might work in Political Science class, but Harper refuses to share his toys and insists on governing like the PMO is his own personal Star Chamber, complete with a pentagram of ewe’s blood on the floor. White smoke issues from a chimney on the Langevin Block and laws are passed Because He Says So. Woe betide any bureaucrat or Minister who disputes What Is Said by He Who Rules.
Here’s how it will play out. Harper will continue issuing Orders In Council running roughshod over democracy. However, this is the third election that Harper, as the sole voice and sole focus of the Conservative party, has not won a majority. The backroom brokers might not be happy with Stevie as he had not delivered the insane power that a majority gives the advisors. And he hasn’t done it three times in a row.
The Liberals will implode and come back out from the black hole with Bob Rae in charge after a vicious fight with Michael Ignatieff for the leadership. Miraculously, the wheels on the Big Red Tricycle will come back on under Bob Rae.
Over at the NDP, the bench strength is slim. Jack might run one more time in a Federal election, but unless he has some credible Cabinet alternatives, the party is still tilting at windmills. Unfortunately, the NDP can’t grow credible alternatives, as the House will resort to its’ usual level of decorum. This is accurately summed up as four annoying children screaming “I know you do but what am I?” at each other while replying with “You suck!”
Gilles Duceppe will pull the pin on his leadership of the Quebec Monomania Party in another year and return to teaching Eye Bugging and Grammar at UQAM. The Bloc will disintegrate into Montreal and non-Montreal factions that argue over commas and accents in a platform that even the NDP can’t fathom, but make perfect sense in Quebec politics. It’s like sex with someone in Public Relations: They sit on the edge of the bed all night long telling you how good it’s going to be, but don’t actually drop the underthings. Then they go home.
Then there is Elizabeth May of the Green Party. No seats in Parliament, but at least their percentage of the popular vote is up. Can she tolerate another four years on the outside looking in, nose pressed up against the door?
Now, if (and there are a lot of ifs here) Rae takes over the Liberal party in the next year, he’ll have three years to build a credible alternative to Harper. Rae could defeat Harper and the Conservatives in 2012 with a Liberal majority, assuming Rae builds a slate of alternatives to the sideshow exhibits and perambulating brain stems that are the the current Conservative ministers and caucus.
This is assuming Harper sticks around. He might just quit and toss the entire Conservative party under the bus. Harper is a technician who has no soul in the game of leadership and has no soul to lead Canada.
RoadDave 