Over two postings I’m going to show you some of the unintended consequences of the most recent security clampdown at Heathrow. It might change your travel plans, but that isn’t my aim. What I want to explain is how one smallish change can have very large consequences. The first one we’re going to tackle is the airline security mess crossing the Atlantic. Some of this is background data you need to appreciate the linkages, so bear with me.
A couple of decades ago, the only aircraft flying the trans-Atlantic routes were three and four-engine jet/turbofan aircraft. The 747, 707, DC-8, L1011 and DC-10 tri-jets were the most common. The reason more than two engines were used was for safety and redundancy. If one engine fails in flight the remaining two or three engines can get the aircraft full of passengers to land and the ground safely. Airlines didn’t like it, as three or four engines are expensive to keep, maintain and run, as they gobble gas the whole way, but the FAA in the US and the CAA in the UK said three engines was the minimum for safety.
After a few years the aircraft and engine manufacturers got their ducks in a row regarding reliability and asked the various legal bodies to approve something called ETOPS, which means Extended Twin OPerationS over water. In the early days ETOPS was also called Engines Turning Or Passengers Swimming, but that is an aside. The reliability was such that a two-engine aircraft, well-maintained could safely fly from Logan or JFK to London with a full load of passengers. The 757 was one of the first ETOPS-certified twin engine passenger jets on the trans-Atlantic route. Following on was the 767, 777, A330 and even the A320 in certain configurations. Two engines were just as safe as three or four and, glory be, much cheaper to run than a 747 per passenger mile. ETOPS meant profitable to the airlines and safe to the regulatory bodies as long as the maintenance was done properly. Many carriers still run the 747 on trans-Atlantic as they pack in more bodies, or move more cargo as part of the load to offset the cost of four engines, but twin jets are the norm. Now notice the caveat that is in that paragraph: “as long as the maintenance was done properly.” This becomes important later.
Since 9/11 the TSA and the Department of Homeland Paranoia have required all flights coming to the US to send their passenger manifests electronically to allow the TSA to check for bad guys. This is sensible and the airlines figured it was reasonable enough to let the US know who was coming, so they could intercept them at Customs at JFK, O’Hare or wherever. However, the TSA now demands more than 30 pieces of data about each passenger, including credit card data and insists on as much personal information as they can get their hands on. This is a bit troubling, but I’m willing to let some of it slide to keep the skies reasonably safe. That kind of data collection didn’t spot Richard Reid the shoe bomber, but there are always a few that will slip through even the finest nets. The airlines used to send the data after the flight had closed and was either off the ground or just taxiing out at Heathrow.
As of last week, the TSA will not allow the flight to leave until they are satisfied that nobody on the flight is even the slightest bit suspicious. The airline cannot dispatch the US-bound flight without approval of the TSA. The data must be sent after the doors are closed and locked, but before the flight leaves the ground. What this means, in short form, is the airplane full of passengers is left to sit for the amount of time it takes for the TSA in Washington to run the passenger and crew data through their Magic 8-Ball Threat Assessment program. This can, according to the British Airport Authority (who runs Heathrow) anywhere from one to three hours. Heathrow, being a profit driven airport, cannot have a revenue generating gate tied up with an aircraft parked there, waiting for an omen from above. The aircraft gets towed off to a parking stand. The passengers are in takeoff mode, seat backs upright, table trays stowed, seatbelts fastened, no water, no music, no laptops, no cellphones, no service, no lavatories and no distractions whatsoever for an indeterminate period of time.
The aircraft is sitting idle and not generating revenue. At the same time, the aircraft has the Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) running to provide lights, instruments, radios and one tiny little fan circulating air in the cabin for 200 stressed, thirsty passengers. A six-hour flight has now become a nine-hour ordeal. Meanwhile the connecting flights are leaving on schedule in the US. The air carrier has to reroute the delayed passengers from London, which costs the airline money. The flight and cabin crew have a mandated maximum number of duty hours and the airline is paying for them to sit on their hands and twiddle their thumbs.
Will this cause the air carrier to lose a lot of business? You bet it will. Passengers enduring this kind of hostility in the name of security will only do it once. Expect the number of people flying to and from Europe to drop to very low levels regardless of the ticket price. This will cut into airline profits in a very big way.
To complicate things even further, as of September 1st, the European Union privacy laws prevent airlines from sending the depth of data the TSA requires to a foreign government, which is what the TSA is. There are significant fines attached to violating the EU privacy laws. There are also significant fines associated with not complying with the TSA-mandated information gathering, as well as having your flight turned back or declared hostile by the TSA and the Department of Homeland Paranoia.
Airlines are faced with dirt-cheap fares, wildly fluctuating fuel prices and insane insurance premiums. Having slashed all the fat and many bones out of their costs, the airlines are faced with one last expense they can manage: Maintenance. Remember that one key caveat I brought to your attention: “as long as the maintenance was done properly”? The only way the airline system and ETOPS works as safely as it does, is maintenance.
The worldwide air safety regulation system is set up on a tombstone basis: Tombstone meaning the rules, procedures and laws regarding aircraft do not change until a bunch of people die. If the crash is caused by maintenance, it can take years for the investigation to finally get to the point whereby an airworthiness directive is issued to change maintenance procedures.
The TSA by mandating onerous security procedures from Europe are making it easy for air carriers to cut that last corner that risks a disaster. More unfortunate, is that the TSA will, in all likelihood, insist on the same level of data reporting for domestic or North American flights. As long as they wrap their demands in ‘the war on terrorism’, the public will go along with it. Expect delays. Then, expect deaths that have nothing to do with terrorism, but everything to do with money.
RoadDave 