Robert Novak, the syndicated columnist, has finally admitted he testified in an investigation about the outing of Valerie Plame. I have some grudging admiration for Novak, despite his politics. He’s a little too right wing for my tastes, but he’s thorough and has a pragmatic streak in his suggestions that I can at least appreciate.
Novak admitted to releasing his sources to the investigation. His sources confirmed that Valerie Plame was a CIA operative. That Valerie Plame was married to Joe Wilson was immaterial or perhaps not as we will see.
The backstory is important. Joe Wilson was an ambassador. Wilson went to Niger before the Iraq war to see if there was any truthiness to rumors that Saddam Hussein was trying to buy nuclear materials on the black market for a weapon of mass destruction.
The allegations were that Valerie Plame wearing her CIA hat, suggested her partner Joe, go to Niger and get the goods. Joe did, the goods were bullshite and Joe said so out loud.
Think back to Dubya and Colin Powell, specifically a State of the Union address and Colin at the UN: Hell, yeah he’s doing it. We got proof! Pictures! Pie Charts! Graphs! Illustrations! Axis of Evil! Al Qaeda! Wilson’s comments at the time were emphatically unwanted by the Administration.
The proof, we found out later, was based on unverified and fabricated British and CIA sources. The evidence fell apart faster than a Wal-Mart dress shirt in the dryer once US soldiers started walking around in Iraq, actually looking for WMD’s.
To slap Joe Wilson, someone decided that outing his wife, Valerie Plame, would be appropriate. Not only does it blow Wilson away as a credible source of any valid criticism, but it also gives the CIA one up the side of the head for not delivering perfect WMD evidence and botching the discreet overthrow of Saddam Hussein in the 90’s.
Outing a CIA agent is illegal in the US and carries some serious penalties. Telling nose-stretchers to a Grand Jury is also illegal. This is why Scooter Libby is in a world of hurt. Scooter lied to a grand jury about outing Plame to a reporter, Judith Miller, of the NYTimes. Judith Miller spent 85 days in the can for refusing to reveal her sources.
Novak was one of the other reporters who were told about Valerie Plame. The sources, according to Novak were Karl Rove and Bill Harlow, an ex-CIA spokesperson. There was one other human that Novak will not name publicly, as his primary source. Rove and Harlow confirmed the primary source.
The reason Novak gave up his sources to Special Prosecutor, Patrick Fitzgerald are easy enough to understand: Novak was going to get his financial and professional nuts cut off and served back to him on a plate. Confronted with financial ruin and jail time, Novak reluctantly caved and gave up all three names.
What does this all mean? It is a chain of things that are suggested or inferred.
Things point back to the Executive branch of the US Government as the most likely source of the leak: Clerks and receptionists don’t have that kind of data or are too scared to open their mouths. Only those who feel they are immune from prosecution would consider leaking that kind of information to a journalist.
It suggests that Joe Wilson might have been right about the WMD/Iraq/Saddam Hussein evidence, as why else would they out his wife, but to muzzle Wilson? It would also show anyone thinking of varying from the speaking points should think twice about opening their mouths.
Assuming Joe Wilson was right, why wouldn’t a government want the truth to come out? That’s easy enough: The decision to fight a war was already taken. The speaking points were already written. The public hadn’t quite fully swallowed the meal, but it was in their mouth. Dissent would cause the American public to spit it out.
Now, the troubling question: When was the decision taken to start some kind of issue with Iraq and Saddam Hussein that might lead to a war?
The implied story has logic to it: Someone wanted to solve the Iraq problem once and for all by getting Saddam Hussein, a loose cannon, off the Baghdad big chair, leaving a legacy of Middle East Peace in Our Time. The Legacy Someone.
Something was needed to push the Iraqi population into overthrowing Saddam Hussein. The CIA tried a couple of times in the 90’s to tip it over and failed. Problem: Saddam Hussein had layers of secret police burying dissenters and all their relatives in unmarked mass graves. The population couldn’t rise up. The Oil for Food sanctions were starving them to death slowly, while the Ba’ath party and the Iraqi army were eating fine.
This Legacy Someone needed a provocation. The UN weapons inspectors and the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors said something was smelly in Iraq, but they had nothing that could be pinned to a wall, despite trying hard.
The UN wasn’t willing to step it up a notch into a police action. It would take at least two years to pull together a coalition like 1991. That wouldn’t happen until the UN had exhausted every diplomatic possibility including Rock, Paper, Scissors with Tariq Azziz.
Iraq shooting at Israel might, or might not, do as a reason to invade Iraq. The implied danger being Saddam Hussein is capable of popping a few at Israel and just to be pissy, adding chemical weapons to the ends of a couple of Scuds, like 1991.
Israel might respond by turning Iraq into radioactive ashes. That wouldn’t play in the US homeland: Too foreign, too dangerous and too abstract the preventing of something that might not happen. It would position Israel as a bunch of nuclear crazies with itchy trigger fingers.
Defending Israel also opens up the question of who actually supplied weapons to both sides in the Middle East. It would be very embarrassing for France, England, Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia and the United States to have it well known that they play all sides against all sides, as long as the cash comes first.
Shooting at US aircraft in the No-Fly zones didn’t play. A starving Iraqi population, with desperate humanitarian needs, nope. Afghan drug lords? Nope.
Ensuring the US oil supply? Too Imperialist and it would annoy Saudi Arabia. The House of Saud is in trouble with local loons who think the Royal family is too cozy with the US as it is.
It had to be something to get the population of the US onside for a short, fast, war against Iraq: An obvious black and white event that everyone could get behind.
The calendar turned over to September 11th 2001.
The Legacy Someone linked it together: A Saudi cement-head, Osama Bin Laden (Shhh..He’s not Saudi, he’s a terrorist hiding in caves) is being supported by Afghani Taliban cement heads and (wait for it…) Saddam Hussein who will sell them Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Outing Valerie Plame was nothing more a slap to keep a few people in line. It is barely a parenthetical footnote that Novak gave up his sources.
The real story, where an unmuzzled Robert Novak should now spend time, is when was the decision to attack Iraq taken and who called it.