So Predictable


The US Democrats are all a twitter because George W Bush mislead the everyone with the claim that Saddam Hussein was getting his mitts on nuclear weapons bits. And, of course, those on either end of the spectrum are finger pointing, shooting off their mouths and calling for resignations, investigations, assassinations and various forms of public humiliations.

In perspective, those in the big chairs rely on a stadium full of advisors to give them information. Reality dictates that Colin, George, Dick and Condoleezza can’t spend the afternoon at the Public Library doing their homework on Iraq, or Liberia, or International Terrorists. They get briefings from those who are given the job of “find out about topic X”. The briefers don’t actually do the work; they have staffs who do the grunt work. Some ink-stained wretch who actually surfs up the data is never allowed near the Big Chairs, of course, as this would be unseemly for an actual researcher to be in the same building as the final consumer of the information.

Naturally, the raw data is compressed, cleaned up, checked for spelling and coffee rings on the paper. Then, the information is either rewritten for the final consumer, or run through four or five other computers to “make sure we make a good impression on the President.”  Suffice to say, pushing a simple declarative sentence through this many sets of eyes and meddling fingers, results in paragraphs of bureaucrat-speak containing as little information as possible.

The issue is simple enough. Colin, George, Dick, Condoleezza and the rest of the Big Chair gang get their data. But the data has been groomed for “appearances”, “style” and “readability”. Would less-than scrupulous briefers fiddle the data to jiggle a conclusion? Nobody wants to piss on the Presidential Parade, so would data that does not support the general idea be suppressed, edited out, footnoted, reworded or generally marginalized? Well, yes. That’s like predicting gravity works.

The Big Chair folks rely on the briefers and the quality of the information to make informed decisions. Go or No-Go? WMD or just an Asshole? Rainy or Sunny? Whole Wheat or White? The problem comes when the Big Chair folks have to make the call. If the only data you have says it is raining, will rain, is continuing to rain and should rain right through to next Thursday, you make sure you take an umbrella. Or, just for the hell of it, turn on the Weather Channel, or take a peek out the window and look for yourself.

None of the occupants of those Big Chairs strike me as complete fools who rely solely on the information they get from their people, but the ultimate responsibility does rest at the feet of the Big Chairs. In the past, the only proper response to being manipulated by your data and (hopefully inadvertently) lying to the public would be to resign. That would entail being honourable and responsible and behaving with some character, so we know that dog won’t hunt.

The finger pointing will go on. Colin, George, Dick and Condoleezza will take some serious heat, but not near as much heat at their respective staffs. In a month or two, one lowly scribe will get fired, being blamed for the information grooming, while the stuffed suits between the real data and the Big Chairs will keep on working. Big surprise again.

That is the real issue, Leadership Isolation. All the assistants, special assistants, assistant special assistants and liaison folks who groom information are the ones who should be in deep trouble. Leaders must fight being in a bubble all the time. Leaders have to trust the people around them to give them good information, even if the information is totally contrary to the general line of thought.

Quite a few families are now mourning the deaths of their sons, daughters, fathers, mothers, husbands and wives. All because of stuffed suit briefers and leaders who wouldn’t look out the window to see if it was really raining.

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