George W. did it last night, as billed. Saddam Hussein got his eviction notice to vacate or face deliveries of rapidly moving steel bits, courtesy of the Army Ordinance Depot from Fort Benning, Georgia. A good speech that pushed the right buttons and gave Saddam Hussein the heads-up dictated by international law that there is a pile of manure and a fan, coming together.
If I were running the show, I would be looking at the 21st as the jump-off day. Saddam is figuring a prompt 48 hours, so go in 72 or so, after everyone is all keyed up to start festivities and is starting that slide down from being pumped to being disappointed. That’s when you whack’em. Much like the police delivering a warrant, nail the bad guy at 0400 when they’re still asleep. Don’t ring the doorbell at 1000 and ask if the Republican Guard can come out to play.
Now, assuming the ground war runs a week or two and the US gets the pink slip to Iraq, what the hell do we do with it? It is like a dog chasing a car. If the dog ever catches the car, the dog has no idea what do with it.
George W. has said he doesn’t want to run it and frankly, neither does anyone else. Canada could have a role in here, doing what we do best, peacekeeping and delivering humanitarian aid.
Except Iraq is just a collection of tribes held together with a money teat of Oil. Kurds, Suni, Afghani and a few hundred thousand other lesser brands, who, like Yugoslavia, don’t like each other, or anyone else. Keeping the peace in that mix is, at best, difficult.
At least the 30-year reign of Saddam Hussein has ridden the country of old-guard communists who were killed for sport when Saddam took over in the 70’s. Since the people of Iraq have no organized opposition left alive and no obvious replacement in the wings, aside from Saddam, they’ll create their own tribal based version that should, with any luck, result in only a few decades of mindless instability, purges, jihads, mass deportations, one or two winters of starvation, disease and a telethon or two.
As a planet, we’ve become rather skilled at bouncing out dictators and the dangerously disturbed with itchy trigger fingers. The one we haven’t figured out yet, is how to airlift a full-blown Jeffersonian Democracy into place after the smoke has cleared. We tried that in Gaza, Cyprus, Korea, Uganda, Somalia, Yemen, Argentina, Chile, Nicaragua, Panama, Yugoslavia, Viet Nam and a bunch of other countries, with little or no success.
It did work in Germany and Austria after WW2 and to a lesser extent, Japan, but fell on its ass in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. And we’re not going to mention Kenya, Liberia, Zaire, Rhodesia/Zimbabwe, Haiti or Grenada.
Is Jeffersonian Democracy the best solution to drop in? Well, no. It doesn’t work that well in countries that don’t have a pot to piss in, or a window to throw it out of. Good old Stalinist Fascism tends to work better on the desperately poor, as a powerful, insane, needlessly violent central government that has food, tends to overcome ethnic, tribal or village loyalties by the expedient of killing or starving anyone who disagrees.
Look at Yugoslavia as an example: Yugoslavia is a put-up job, more or less created by the League of Nations to put all the Croats, Serbs, Macedonians and other ethnic groups into one map reference. Russian ran the joint with an iron fist until Russia imploded. Then the population reverted to ethnic, tribal and village loyalties which was what they had all along. They were not loyal to Yugoslavia, but to Croatia, or Serbia or Obscuria, even though those countries had not existed since the end of WWI.
If we take over Iraq, will it dissolve into the Suni, Kurd and Afghani, North and South, Oiled and Unoiled? Of course it will and they’ll fight like wet cats in a sack over oil, food and access to the Gulf.
At that point the UN will throw its hands up an say “fuck it” and another insane violent dictator will step up to unite Iraq with promises of “democracy” and “freedom” and “prosperity” right after we have another purge of those who still have their right hand or brown eyes, or the wrong hairstyle. Then we’ll form a “commission of reform and advancement” to decided on how our new constitution will look. Unfortunately all the members of that commission were killed in a bombing by radicals, so we must continue with martial law until the rebels are captured. Is this sounding familiar? India and Pakistan come to mind, along with most of Africa at one time or another.